Why Won't our Leaders Wake Up? - A Reply.

In the last thread, LadyHawk asked, "Why won't our leaders wake up?" I know that this reply is inadequate but I offer it anyway.

They're awake You can be sure of that. But, boy, do they have their hands full! Currently they have to contend with:

16 million Shias in Iraq. Iran just shook its rattles at the US the other day when it mobilised, by some accounts, over 100,000 Shias in a demonstration against Israel. The Iranians and al-Sadr were warning us that they can make life very miserable in Iraq. Why they think this is a threat is beyond me when it's obvious that this is exactly what they intend to do anyway. The challenge for the Bush administration is too buy time for the Iraqi government to consolidate power so that the government (and not the militias) has a monopoly on force in that country. We don’t know whether Iraq will survive as a nation, but we’re trying to ensure that it does and that the investment we have made is not wasted.

World Opinion: World opinion is simply against confronting radical Islam which they do not view as a threat. The Bush Administration has been accused of acting unilaterally. The Bush administration seems to be working to bring world opinion on board for the inevitable actions against Iran. That's why it deferred to the EU3 to deal with Iran. Realising that we need more time to stabilize and strengthen the government in Iraq and as a show of multilateral cooperation, the Bush administration enlisted the Europeans in the task of dealing with a mad man. The Bush administration calculated that the Europeans would see the folly in negotiating with the devil. I think this has worked.

The Muslim world. The world wishes to see the US humbled and it doesn't matter who accomplishes that feat. The Muslim world is desperate for a hero who can give the US a black eye. It was Arafat, then Bin-Laden, then Zarqhawi in Iraq, and now its Ahmadinejad in Iran with his proxy, Nasrullah in Lebanon. Thanks to Jimmy Carter and subsequent administrations, Islamists have been allowed to operate almost unimpeded until September 11, 2001. It has been a continual public relations struggle to wage war against the Islamists who like the left are very adept at propaganda. Syria solidly joining the Iranians may have been a wildcard that we did not see coming. One interesting aspect of the troubles in Lebanon is that like the Sunni/Shia divide in Iraq, the Sunni leaders in the greater middle east seem to be content to let the US and Israel “carry their water.” A Sunni/Shia schism has been highlighted and the Bush Administration must find a way to exploit it.

Democrats and the LeftAlthough, I don’t believe the results are accurate, a recent poll found that 30% of those polled believe the US government was complicit in the attacks on Sept 11. Even the US Supreme Court has strained and bent US laws and the Geneva Convention to stymie the Bush Administration’s efforts to combat the Islamists. The Democratic Party has continually criticized and obstructed the war effort.

Iran As Barbara Lerner pointed out, Iran has been at war with the United States since 1979. Unfortunately, they weren’t taken seriously but now that the Iranian mullahs have replaced their previous moderate President with “Amadjihadi” their intentions have been made quite clear. They will not tolerate a democratic government anywhere in the Muslim world and are going after the low-hanging fruit of weak governments in Iraq and Lebanon.

It’s not our leaders who aren’t awake. Bush and Blair have been trying for years to warn of the dangers but the people aren’t listening. I have to think that the Bush Administration knows a lot that they just aren’t telling.

A world-wide existential chess game is being played and every move must be thought about long and hard because this is a game is that is “for keeps” and a wrong move can have truly catastrophic consequences.